http://www.researchonline.mq.edu.au/vital/access/services/Feed ${session.getAttribute("locale")} 5 http://www.researchonline.mq.edu.au/vital/access/manager/Repository/mq:12238 A total of 40 out of 531 tropical cyclones that formed in the western North Pacific during 1986–2005 have accompanied trade wind surges located 5°–15° latitude to the north of the pretropical cyclone disturbance centers. Composite and empirical orthogonal function analyses indicate that the trade wind surges are related to a midlatitude eastward-moving high pressure system often found during the East Asian winter monsoon. Therefore, these trade wind surge tropical cyclones tend to occur in late season (with one-third of them in December), and at lower latitudes (7° latitude lower than the climatological average formation position). The evolution of mesoscale features during formation of trade wind surge tropical cyclones is examined. Various satellite datasets show similar mesoscale patterns during their formations. A few convective lines form by convergence between the trade wind surges and the strengthening cyclonic circulation associated with incipient vortex within the 24 h before formation. Some mesoscale convective systems are embedded in the convective line with lifetimes of about 5 h, and these are illustrated through case studies. Formations usually occur when the trade winds start to decrease in magnitude and a short period after the major episodes of convection in the convective lines and mesoscale convective systems. The relationships between the temporal variability of synoptic-scale trade wind surges, the mesoscale features, and associated tropical cyclone formations are discussed. 2011-05-05T07:04:24.416Z ]]> http://www.researchonline.mq.edu.au/vital/access/manager/Repository/mq:12226 A heavy rainfall event associated with the passage of Tropical Storm Rachel (1999) over southern Taiwan was studied in which a conceptual model was proposed. In the model, Tropical Storm Paul (1999) plays an important role in impeding the movement of Rachel, thus becoming one of the key factors in enhancing the rainfall amount in southern Taiwan. To further quantify the above concept, a mesoscale numerical model is used to evaluate the influence of Paul on the simulated rainfall associated with Rachel near Taiwan. Sensitivity experiments are performed by removing the circulation of Paul, and/or the large-scale monsoon trough system, where Paul is imbedded. The potential vorticity diagnosis shows that the movement of Rachel is indeed affected by the presence of Paul. Nevertheless, a more detailed analysis shows that it is the presence of the entire monsoon trough that impedes the movement of Rachel and steers the storm toward southwestern Taiwan especially before its landfall. In all, these results generally support the conceptual model with regard to the heavy rainfall mechanism proposed in a previous study. Moreover, this study further points out that it is the circulation associated with both Paul and the entire monsoon trough that affects the movement of Rachel. In addition, the analyses based on the no-terrain simulation depict the relationships among the moisture-rich air from the South China Sea associated with Rachel, relatively dry air from South China, and the mechanism of forming a warm and dry region to the eastern side of the Taiwan terrain, which greatly influences the heavy rainfall distribution in the event. 2011-03-21T05:01:48.788Z ]]> http://www.researchonline.mq.edu.au/vital/access/manager/Repository/mq:12227 A tropical cyclone (TC) size parameter, which is defined here as the radius of 15 m s⁻¹ near-surface wind speed (R15), is calculated for 145 TCs in the western North Pacific during 2000–05 based on QuikSCAT oceanic winds. For the 73 TCs that intensified to typhoon intensity during their lifetimes, the 33% and 67% respective percentiles of R15 at tropical storm intensity and at typhoon intensity are used to categorize small, medium, and large TCs. Whereas many of the small TCs form from an easterly wave synoptic pattern, the monsoon-related formation patterns are favorable for forming medium to large TCs. Most of these 73 TCs stay in the same size category during intensification, which implies specific physical mechanisms for maintaining TC size in the basin. The 18 persistently large TCs from the tropical storm to the typhoon stage mostly have northwestward or north-northwestward tracks, while the 16 persistently small TCs eithermove westward– northwestward in lower latitudes or develop at higher latitudes with various track types. For the large TCs, strong low-level southwesterly winds exist in the outer core region south of the TC center throughout the intensification period. The small TCs are more influenced by the subtropical high during intensification. The conclusion is that it is the low-level environment that determines the difference between large and small size storms during the early intensification period in the western North Pacific. 2011-03-21T05:01:48.535Z ]]> http://www.researchonline.mq.edu.au/vital/access/manager/Repository/mq:9451 Due to the Central Mountain Range with an elevation up to about 4 km, the amount and distribution of rainfall in Taiwan associated with typhoons or tropical cyclones (TCs) depends not only on the distribution of convection within the TCs (internal structure) and influences from monsoon-scale environmental flow, but also on the orographic effect. This study analyzes the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall associated with 62 TC cases that affected Taiwan by using observations from the 371 automatic rain stations available in the period 1989–2002. It is found from the climatology maps that highly different rainfall distributions occurred for TCs that approached the Taiwan area from different directions. By performing objective clustering analysis of the rainfall time series of all the rain gauges, several characteristic temporal rainfall profiles are obtained. The geographic distribution of rain gauges that possess a particular temporal profile is also consistent with the possible TC track types that bring maximum rain to the Taiwan area at different times. Based on data in the 1989–2002 period, the development of a TC rainfall climatology-persistence (CLIPER) model is described. CLIPER is an optimized combination of climatology and persistence with different relative weighting for different forecast periods. Independent cases (other than the model development database) during 2003–2004 are used to validate the model. Objective measures like equitable threat score and bias score show that CLIPER's skill is acceptable for practical applications for 24-h rain threshold below 100 mm. However, the underestimation bias for more heavy rainfall is serious and CLIPER seems to have better performance for the northwestern Taiwan than for the other locations. Future directions for improvement of the CLIPER model are discussed. 2010-09-17T08:20:50.871Z ]]> http://www.researchonline.mq.edu.au/vital/access/manager/Repository/mq:9421 The mesoscale features of 124 tropical cyclone formations in the western North Pacific Ocean during 1999–2004 are investigated through large-scale analyses, satellite infrared brightness temperature (TB), and Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) oceanic wind data. Based on low-level wind flow and surge direction, the formation cases are classified into six synoptic patterns: easterly wave (EW), northeasterly flow (NE), coexistence of northeasterly and southwesterly flow (NE–SW), southwesterly flow (SW), monsoon confluence (MC), and monsoon shear (MS). Then the general convection characteristics and mesoscale convective system (MCS) activities associated with these formation cases are studied under this classification scheme. Convection processes in the EW cases are distinguished from the monsoon-related formations in that the convection is less deep and closer to the formation center. Five characteristic temporal evolutions of the deep convection are identified: (i) single convection event, (ii) two convection events, (iii) three convection events, (iv) gradual decrease in TB, and (v) fluctuating TB, or a slight increase in TB before formation. Although no dominant temporal evolution differentiates cases in the six synoptic patterns, evolutions ii and iii seem to be the common routes taken by the monsoon-related formations. The overall percentage of cases with MCS activity at multiple times is 63%, and in 35% of cases more than one MCS coexisted. Most of the MC and MS cases develop multiple MCSs that lead to several episodes of deep convection. These two patterns have the highest percentage of coexisting MCSs such that potential interaction between these systems may play a role in the formation process. The MCSs in the monsoon-related formations are distributed around the center, except in the NE–SW cases in which clustering of MCSs is found about 100–200 km east of the center during the 12 h before formation. On average only one MCS occurs during an EW formation, whereas the mean value is around two for the other monsoon-related patterns. Both the mean lifetime and time of first appearance of MCS in EW are much shorter than those developed in other synoptic patterns, which indicates that the overall formation evolution in the EW case is faster. Moreover, this MCS is most likely to be found within 100 km east of the center 12 h before formation. The implications of these results to internal mechanisms of tropical cyclone formation are discussed in light of other recent mesoscale studies. 2010-09-16T02:10:43.829Z ]]> http://www.researchonline.mq.edu.au/vital/access/manager/Repository/mq:9423 During the period of 29–30 May 2001, the development and northeastward propagation of a series of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) produced heavy rainfall with a maximum 6-h accumulated rainfall of 120 mm in southern Taiwan. Moisture budget analyses of the MCSs evolution associated with this heavy rain event was carried out by utilizing high-resolution numerical simulation results from the atmospheric part of the triply nested, nonhydrostatic Coupled Ocean/Atmospheric Mesoscale Prediction Systems (COAMPS). The control (CTRL) run experiment successfully simulated the synoptic environment, although it did not reproduce well the magnitude of the low-level horizontal moisture flux convergence and the precipitation distribution along the Meiyu front over the Taiwan Strait presumably due to insufficient data over the ocean. As QuikSCAT oceanic winds were taken into the assimilation cycles (QUIK run), the experiment reproduced better precipitation in terms of both amount and spatial distribution especially the precipitation over the ocean, and received higher equitable threat score for precipitation forecast. The MCSs evolution was also better simulated as compared to that of the CTRL run. Moisture budget analyses in the subcloud layer revealed that the grid-scale horizontal moisture flux convergence and upward vertical moisture flux divergence represented the major contribution for moisture transport in all stages of MCS evolution, and their values increased substantially during the convection development. The value of subgrid-scale vertical moisture flux convergence in the 5-km grid (mainly turbulence) was more than double that for convection developed over land than over the ocean. Relative contribution from disturbances under 5 km and cumulus convection were also examined by comparing the subgrid-scale moisture budget terms in the 15-km and 5-km grids, which showed that transport from disturbances under 5 km was dominating for both MCS development over the ocean and land. It was also found that surface evaporation played a relatively important role in the upward moisture transport processes before the development of MCS over the ocean as compared to that during the development of MCS over both land and the ocean. Contribution from orographic effect to rain associated with the MCS and vertical moisture flux convergence in the subcloud layer was discussed based on a flux model of orographic rain. 2010-09-16T02:10:40.720Z ]]>