http://www.researchonline.mq.edu.au/vital/access/services/Feed ${session.getAttribute("locale")} 5 http://www.researchonline.mq.edu.au/vital/access/manager/Repository/mq:7613 Continuing increases in life expectancy beyond previously-held limits have brought to the fore the critical importance of mortality forecasting. Significant developments in mortality forecasting since 1980 are reviewed under three broad approaches: expectation, extrapolation and explanation. Expectation is not generally a good basis for mortality forecasting, as it is subjective; expert expectations are invariably conservative. Explanation is restricted to certain causes of death with known determinants. Decomposition by cause of death poses problems associated with the lack of independence among causes and data difficulties. Most developments have been in extrapolative forecasting, and make use of statistical methods rather than models developed primarily for age-specific graduation. Methods using two-factor models (age-period or age-cohort) have been most successful. The two-factor Lee-Carter method, and, in particular, its variants, have been successful in terms of accuracy, while recent advances have improved the estimation of forecast uncertainty. Regression-based (GLM) methods have been less successful, due to nonlinearities in time. Three-factor methods are more recent; the Lee-Carter age-period cohort model appears promising. Specialised software has been developed and made available. Research needs include further comparative evaluations of methods in terms of the accuracy of the point forecast and its uncertainty, encompassing a wide range of mortality situations. 2010-03-30T08:41:12.241Z ]]> http://www.researchonline.mq.edu.au/vital/access/manager/Repository/mq:5978 A new analysis of bushfire risk to residential properties shows that in 60% of years losses occur somewhere in Australia. The evident corollary to this is that in 40% of years no losses are experienced. This statistic has remained reasonably stable over the last century despite large increases in population and improvements in technology and firefighting resources. This stability was similarly demonstrated by the 40% probability of a major event, here arbitrarily defined as the loss of more than 25 homes within a period of 7 days, a time window of some relevance to reinsurance contracts. The annual average number of houses lost is estimated to be 83 homes and when this is combined with current asset values for home and contents, the Annual Average Damage is valued at $33.5 million. The 1 in 100 year event equates to a likely loss of AU$0.7 billion and the 1 in 250 year event, AU$1.1 billion. These figures are approximately equal to the present value of the insured losses from Tropical Cyclone Tracy and the Newcastle earthquake. When the Annual Average Damage is adjusted for the annual volatility of losses, as would typically be the case when risk is judged from a reinsurance perspective, the national bushfire risk premium amounts to $62.4 million. A complete costing for bushfire would need to include loss of life, the fixed cost of maintaining and supporting state fire fighting services, the opportunity cost of the volunteers engaged in firefighting activities as well as any contributions from Federal Government. This same general approach could be easily adapted to other perils in order to establish an objective ranking of the threat posed by the various natural hazards. 2010-01-27T22:23:51.976Z ]]> http://www.researchonline.mq.edu.au/vital/access/manager/Repository/mq:6871 Major objectives of an investor are to minimize risk and maximize expected portfolio returns. International diversification is a natural means to these ends. We extend the search into the area of currency hedging, investigating the theory of demand for index bonds and its role in hedging risky assets against currency risks for a given market portfolio when equity is not hedged against inflation risk. The major conclusions are: Introducing index bond into the analysis we have expanded the investor s opportunity set with a real asset. Clarifying the meaning of and relation among various Universal Hedging Ratios that have previously appeared in the literature. Explicitly identifies the necessary conditions under which investors follow a common currency hedging strategy and constructs a single performance evaluation benchmark for international portfolios, irrespective of the national identity of the investor, in the presence of index bonds.This book will be an aid16 to International Portfolio Managers and Financial Managers. This book can also be used as a resource for post-graduate courses in International Finance and Risk Management. 2010-01-27T22:12:15.113Z ]]>