Mortality projection based on the Wang transform | Macquarie University ResearchOnline

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Title: Mortality projection based on the Wang transform
Related: Astin bulletin, Vol. 37, Issue 1, p.149-161
DOI: 10.2143/AST.37.1.2020803
Publisher: Peeters Online Journals
Date: 2007
Author/Creator: De Jong, Piet
Author/Creator: Marshall, Claymore
Description: A new method for analysing and projecting mortality is proposed and examined. The method takes observed time series of survival probabilities, finds the corresponding z-scores in the standard normal distribution and forecasts the z-scores. The z-scores appear to follow a common simple linear progression in time and hence forecasting is straightforward. Analysis on the z-score scale offers useful insights into the way mortality evolves over time. The method and extensions are applied to Australian female mortality data to derive projections to the year 2100 in both survival probabilities and expectations of life.
Description: 13 page(s)
Subject Keyword: mortality
Subject Keyword: forecasting
Subject Keyword: Wang transform
Resource Type: journal article
Organisation: Macquarie University. Dept. of Actuarial Studies

Macquarie University ResearchOnline