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Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts : lying or strategizing? A contextualist analysis of a troubled initiative in the Hong Kong container industry

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1959.14/185486

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Title: Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts : lying or strategizing? A contextualist analysis of a troubled initiative in the Hong Kong container industry
Related: Asia-Pacific journal of business administration, Vol. 1, Issue 1, (2009), p.7-22
DOI: 10.1108/17574320910942141
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Date: 2009
FoR/RFCD Code(s): 150300 Business and Management
Author/Creator: Dufour, Yvon
Author/Creator: Steane, Peter
Author/Creator: Wong, Lawrence
Description: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to look into the fate of a troubled initiative in Hong Kong that was developed in the midst of discussions between Beijing and London leading towards the 1997 handover. It sets out to shred new light on the “forecasting gap”: the gap between the anticipated level of traffic and the real volume of traffic in the years following the opening of a new infrastructure. Design/methodology/approach – This research uses primarily qualitative methods. The data collection process comprises three main activities: documentary search, observational and ethnographic material, and interviews. The general strategy of data presentation and analysis is to develop a descriptive framework for organizing the longitudinal case-study. Findings – The paper puts forward that there is little basis to the claim of Machiavellian practices in the Hong Kong container handling community. The analysis suggests that the gaps are residual of prolonged decision-making processes featuring a diversity of stakeholders strategizing in pursuing their respective agenda. Originality/value – Contextualist analysis of the “traffic forecasting gap” challenges the popular and widespread view that traffic forecasts are intentionally biased to serve the interests of the promoters.
Description: 16 page(s)
Subject Keyword: 150300 Business and Management
Subject Keyword: Forecasting
Subject Keyword: Freight containers
Subject Keyword: Hong Kong
Subject Keyword: Traffic
Subject Keyword: Transportation
Resource Type: journal article
Organisation: Macquarie University. Macquarie Graduate School of Management

Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/1959.14/185486
Identifier: ISSN:1757-4323
Identifier: mq-rm-2009000876
Language: eng
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